Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 51.366975 56.860800 63.048919 70.612207 79.715232 90.463763 104.342641
2025-01-26 45.547886 53.127194 62.444117 75.054052 92.214846 115.665988 152.016578
2025-02-02 42.458695 51.337376 62.948629 79.919839 105.439927 145.166742 219.224301
2025-02-09 39.241563 48.642878 61.487820 81.362073 113.684229 169.893242 294.964719
2025-02-16 36.238234 45.741370 59.152941 80.828553 118.367409 190.153889 379.525817
2025-02-23 33.823822 43.337449 57.132573 80.279438 122.682408 211.418409 492.005697
2025-03-02 31.477887 40.776929 54.534439 78.283176 123.744604 226.230108 609.472442
2025-03-09 29.603598 38.730881 52.483381 76.856805 125.511271 243.667108 777.133627
2025-03-16 27.476935 36.144108 49.335510 73.060824 121.567758 244.676557 873.747612
2025-03-23 26.957632 35.938135 49.952407 76.111401 133.020312 295.984528 1540.207498
2025-03-30 25.771740 34.612962 48.604298 75.279989 135.475552 321.421560 2276.054516
2025-04-06 24.521548 33.107379 46.830635 73.398095 134.985217 336.633580 3201.018566
2025-04-13 23.014110 31.174801 44.300693 69.959596 130.481481 336.462881 4051.793048
2025-04-20 22.887698 31.436534 45.557319 74.340147 147.667459 447.833093 60509.181700
2025-04-27 22.790653 31.730180 46.889658 79.131850 168.330228 625.816799 NaN
2025-05-04 22.227104 31.209020 46.695541 80.551576 179.583307 783.784351 NaN
2025-05-11 21.464726 30.305454 45.715460 80.026411 184.300343 909.901907 NaN
2025-05-18 20.761585 29.462573 44.783060 79.485862 188.901288 1063.019020 NaN
2025-05-25 19.946184 28.386544 43.332938 77.520460 187.630319 1146.286476 NaN
2025-06-01 19.251220 27.486564 42.164624 76.115864 188.204483 1273.669058 NaN
2025-06-08 18.339592 26.175789 40.132678 72.376705 178.541861 1194.399099 NaN
2025-06-15 18.218715 26.233321 40.762346 75.381748 197.682748 1854.246207 NaN
2025-06-22 17.704471 25.575792 39.938840 74.562852 200.268878 2196.880652 NaN